Even the most cautious observers have noticed that financial services are increasingly appearing inside everyday digital journeys across African markets, showing up not as standalone apps but as context-aware tools embedded in telco wallets, retail networks, and platform workflows from delivery to agritech. This year’s databook placed a clear marker: embedded finance is on track to grow 11.2% to about US$13.2 billion, a sign that early experimentation has given way to a steadier, more disciplined build-out. Growth has moderated from the hyper-acceleration of the last few years, yet the base is wider, the plumbing is sturdier, and the path to regional scale is more visible. Underneath headline numbers, more than 100 KPIs tracked transaction values and volumes, average ticket sizes, revenue take rates, and operating metrics, providing granular evidence that distribution, not just product, is becoming the decisive advantage.
Market signals and growth trajectory
Momentum this year rested on three reinforcing pillars: API-led infrastructure, maturing regulation, and the compounding reach of mobile wallets. Telcos continued to dominate distribution because they control the on-ramps—SIM relationships, agent networks, and transaction frequency—while fintechs supplied modular components that slot into diverse use cases. The databook framed the shift succinctly: after a brisk compound expansion up to this year, growth is normalizing toward an 8.1% CAGR from this year to 2030, expanding to roughly US$18.0 billion by 2030, up from about US$11.9 billion last year. That arc is less about slowdown and more about stabilization, as embedded payments, credit at checkout, microinsurance at enrollment, and savings nudges deepen inside platforms where users already transact daily.
The most meaningful change, however, was less visible than logos and app screens: infrastructure consolidation. API providers and platform enablers increasingly acted as connective tissue, harmonizing onboarding, risk scoring, KYC, and reconciliation across countries and sectors. This made cross-border use cases more feasible as interoperability improved, particularly in corridors where mobile money is entrenched. Regional patterns strengthened: East Africa, led by Kenya and Uganda, set the pace in wallet-centric payments and nano-credit; West Africa, with Nigeria and Ghana, leaned into merchant financing and B2B workflows; Southern Africa gained ground in insurtech bundles and embedded digital wallets. With Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Zambia maturing their rails, more entrants signaled intent, pushing for broader coverage and more standardized integrations.
Competition, rails, and regulation
Competition intensified where economics are hardest to crack: credit, insurance, and merchant financing. Telcos held the upper hand in low-cost distribution; fintechs specialized in risk and orchestration; banks brought licenses, balance sheets, and treasury management. Partnerships were not window dressing—they increasingly determined unit economics, especially in working capital embedded inside retail and commerce platforms. Insurtechs such as Lami Technologies and Turaco scaled API-based microinsurance via platform integrations, pushing premiums into places traditional channels struggled to reach. Meanwhile, B2B credit players like Payhippo and Float embedded working capital across merchant networks, reducing friction in underwriting by blending POS data, wallet flows, and inventory signals.
Regulatory clarity helped. Sandboxes and tiered licensing frameworks allowed experimentation with tighter guardrails, while data protection norms nudged providers toward consent-led design and more transparent pricing. As rails matured, average transaction sizes rose in line with trust and product fit, and revenue profiles became less volatile. Yet the real prize lay in distribution architecture: embedding finance at the point of need, with risk models tuned to context, reduced acquisition costs and boosted conversion. The next act demanded disciplined scaling—standardized APIs, shared fraud intelligence, and regional compliance playbooks—to unlock cross-border monetization. The report pointed to actionable steps: lean into telco–fintech–bank consortia, treat credit and microinsurance as frontline battlegrounds, and design for portability as interoperability widened. The path ahead favored platform-led distribution, operational rigor, and patient capital over splashy launches.
