Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1.
Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow near 3 percent in the medium term, with rising gasoline prices providing some downside risk.
U.S. retail sales advanced 0.3 percent month over month in April (+4.7 percent year over year), rising for the second consecutive month and securing its escape from the soft patch to start the year.
