In January, Q2 released the 2023 State of Commercial Banking Report, which analyzed data from Q2’s PrecisionLender proprietary database that includes commercial relationships from more than 150 banks and credit unions throughout the United States, along with other sources. Report author Gita Thollesson weighs in on the uncertainty of the 2023 outlook and other key takeaways from the report.
Takeaway 1: All we can say with certainty about the economic outlook for 2023 is that it’s uncertain.
We’re seeing a lot of mixed signals in the market right now. On one hand, gross domestic product, or GDP, went from an actual rate of 5.5% at the end of 2021 to 2.1% by December 2022. Two quarters of negative GDP growth and an inverted yield curve are often two key predicators of recession, and 2022 had both.